Earlier in the campaign for the Republican nomination, I would have said that Mitt Romney had a good chance of getting the GOP nomination. Against the other candidates (Perry/Cain), Romney's chances are looking pretty good, but he's going to have to work really hard if he plans on getting the nomination.
A main reason that Romney wouldn't win is that his Republican "fan base" is really low. Romney's religious background (Mormonism) is not appealing to the evangelical Republicans. Romney's liberal tactics are in opposition to the conservative Republicans. The Republican vote relies a lot on religion. Romney will not be able to win the votes of the Republican Southerners (or the backwoods conservatives) if he is seeking to win the election. Romney needs to reach a more conservative standpoint and stop leaning toward liberal issues. Even if Romney managed to get by and win the GOP nomination without the conservatives, he could many Democratic voters (who are looking for a change), but he would not be able to mobilize the Southerners to vote for him.
A reason that Romney could win the nomination is his general appeal to the media. Romney is seen a seasoned veteran of politics and the media is right behind him on this. Romney seeks not only to appeal to Republicans (as his party title suggests) but he also appeals to the Democratic voters who are tired of Obama's ways. Romney has been getting a lot of media attention, especially now that candidates like Herman Cain are losing momentum. Romney has been an innocent bystander as the other candidates self-destruct their own campaigns (Cain, Perry, Bachmann). Romney's ideology (Republican but not strict conservative) has proved appealing to the independent voters in the swing states. Judging by how many swing states there are, Romney has a great chance of winning the nomination and quite possibly, the general election. Other candidates have taken to appealing solely to conservative Republican voters, which will not help them much in the general election.
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